Executive Summary

Q3 2025 delivered solid operations with oil volumes above guidance midpoint (155.7 MBopd) and E&P and other CapEx below midpoint; Adjusted EBITDA was $577.8MM and Adjusted diluted EPS was $2.35 .
Against S&P Global consensus, revenue was a meaningful beat ($1.23B actual vs $1.07B est*) and EPS was a modest beat ($2.35 actual vs $2.29 est*); EBITDA was roughly in-line/slightly below ($569.7MM actual vs $579.8MM est*) — definitional differences vs company “Adjusted EBITDA” partly explain the gap*.
Guidance was updated: FY25 oil volumes raised; cash G&A lowered; cash interest raised after September notes offering; LOE adjusted higher reflecting Marcellus curtailments; XTO assets add ~4 MBopd oil in Q4 .
Strategic catalysts: continued de-risking of four-mile laterals (three TIL’d since August; early results encouraging) and marketing optimization initiatives expected to drive $30–$50MM annualized FCF savings .

Values from S&P Global marked with *; “Values retrieved from S&P Global”.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Oil volumes exceeded guidance midpoint (155.7 MBopd; total 280.9 MBoepd), while E&P & other CapEx came in below midpoint ($333.7MM) .
4-mile lateral program advanced: three additional wells TIL’d since August, ahead of schedule and under budget; tracer data indicates full-lateral contribution; first 4-mile well matched production from two 2-mile analogs in six months .
Marketing optimization: agreements expected to deliver $30–$50MM annualized FCF savings; about half realized in 2025, with broader cost efficiencies across crude, gas and water services .

Quote: “Chord’s operational momentum continues… strong results in the third quarter… raised FY25 oil volume guidance… XTO assets… extend inventory runway and longer lateral development.” — Danny Brown, CEO .

What Went Wrong

LOE was at the upper end of guidance ($9.62/Boe), driven by Marcellus curtailment and activity timing .
Natural gas volumes modestly below guidance (420.1 MMcfpd vs 430.0–442.0 MMcfpd), and NGL realizations remained low (8% of WTI) .
Year-over-year compression: total oil, NGL and gas revenues down to $966.8MM vs $1,121.0MM in Q3 2024; diluted EPS down to $2.26 vs $3.59; Adjusted EBITDA $577.8MM vs $674.5MM .

Financial Results

P&L vs prior periods and estimates

Metric	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Total oil, NGL and natural gas revenues ($MM)	$1,121.0	$950.3	$966.8
Total revenues ($MM)	$1,450.5	$1,111.6	$1,312.1
Diluted EPS (GAAP) ($)	3.59	(6.77)	2.26
Adjusted diluted EPS ($)	3.40	1.79	2.35
Adjusted EBITDA ($MM)	674.5	547.2	577.8

Margin context (S&P Global definitions)

Metric	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
EBITDA Margin %	52.34%*	52.88%*	46.22%*
EBIT Margin %	25.65%*	18.97%*	15.80%*
Net Income Margin %	16.70%*	(35.08%)*	10.56%*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

KPI snapshot

KPI	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Oil (MBopd)	158.8	156.7	155.7
NGL (MBblpd)	51.7	54.1	55.1
Gas (MMcfpd)	421.8	425.9	420.1
Total production (MBoepd)	280.8	281.9	280.9
LOE ($/Boe)	—	10.02	9.62
Cash GPT ($/Boe)	—	2.80	2.86
Cash G&A ($MM)	—	21.7	16.5
Oil price w/o derivs ($/Bbl)	73.51	61.62	63.59
Gas price w/o derivs ($/Mcf)	0.44	1.10	0.81
NGL price ($/Bbl)	6.31	5.80	4.89

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance (Aug-6)	Current Guidance (Nov-4)	Change
Oil Volumes (MBopd)	FY25	151.8–154.1	153.8–154.8 (ex-XTO note: midpt ~153.3 ex-XTO)	Raised
Oil Volumes (MBopd)	Q4 2025	143.5–148.5	149.0–153.0 (ex-XTO + ~4.0 MBopd from XTO)	Raised (XTO adds ~4 MBopd)
Total Volumes (MBoepd)	FY25	272.5–278.3	275.6–278.1	Adjusted
E&P & Other CapEx ($MM)	FY25	$1,320–$1,380	$1,350–$1,380 (add $15MM to support XTO)	Maintained/Adjusted
LOE ($/Boe)	FY25	$9.35–$9.85	$9.60–$9.85 (midpt $9.73)	Raised (midpoint)
Cash G&A ($MM)	FY25	$90–$100	$87–$92	Lowered
Cash Interest ($MM)	FY25	$68–$72	$78–$80	Raised (Sept notes)
Oil Discount to WTI ($/Bbl)	FY25	$(2.15)–$(1.15)	$(2.15)–$(1.65)	Adjusted
Cash Tax (% of Adj. EBITDA)	Q4 2025	—	1.5% at $50–$70 WTI	Added
Dividend	Q3 2025	Base $1.30/sh	Base $1.30/sh declared (payable Dec 5)	Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q1 2025 Mentions	Q2 2025 Mentions	Q3 2025 Current	Trend
Longer laterals (3–4 mile)	First 4-mile TIL; budgets lowered on efficiencies	Four 4-mile wells drilled; seven online by YE; breakeven −$8–$12/bbl vs 2-mile	Three more 4-mile TILs since Aug; full-lateral contribution indicated; 2026 could be ~40% 4-mile wells	Accelerating and de-risking
Marketing optimization	—	Contracts/egress optionality; savings building	$30–$50MM annualized savings; ~half realized in 2025	Cost tailwinds growing
Automation/AI	—	31 projects; AI/ML across production, ESP-to-rod lift, gas lift; dashboards	AI controlling rod pumps; expanding to ESPs; 24-hour workover rigs	Early innings with measurable uptime gains
Capital allocation	Base dividend + buybacks; flexibility to moderate activity	Free cash flow per share up >25% since Feb; trough volumes in Q4 then ramp	69% of Adj. FCF returned in Q3; $83MM repurchases	Consistent returns focus
M&A/XTO integration	—	Proactive consolidation philosophy	Closed XTO Oct 31; ~4 MBopd contribution to Q4; assets support longer laterals	Strategic bolt-on with synergy potential
Marcellus (non-core)	—	Non-core monetization focus	Non-core; maximize value over time	Portfolio rationalization

Management Commentary

“Adjusted free cash flow for the third quarter was approximately $230 million, and we returned 69% of this free cash flow to shareholders… we raised oil volume guidance… and continue to de-risk the four-mile program.” — Danny Brown, CEO .
“We closed the XTO transaction on October 31 and… adjusted fourth quarter production up by 4,000 barrels of oil per day... added capital of $15 million to full year 2025 to support higher maintenance in 2026.” — Danny Brown .
“We announced expected savings of $30–$50 million a year... spread across gas, NGL, LOE and GPT.” — Richard Robuck, CFO .
“Tracer data indicates contribution from the full lateral… first 4-mile well matched two 2-mile analogs after only six months.” — Operations update .

Q&A Highlights

Four-mile wells: Expect benefits to capital efficiency and lower decline to show in late 2026–2027; early production suggests limited degradation in the fourth mile; EUR uplift targeted at 90–100% vs two-mile analogs .
Cost structure: Marketing/midstream renegotiations from legacy 2010–2014 contracts are unlocking savings; further opportunities expected across LOE, D&C, and GPT .
2026 framework: Preliminary oil volumes 157–161 MBopd with flat E&P capital (+~$40MM to maintain XTO); production cadence strongest mid-year .
Automation: AI-driven rod pump control improving run times and reducing workovers; expanding to ESPs; moving more workover rigs to 24-hour operations for efficiency .
Marcellus: Confirmed as non-core; focus on maximizing value over time .

Estimates Context

Metric	Q2 2025 (Actual vs Cons)	Q3 2025 (Actual vs Cons)	Q4 2025 (Cons)
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)	1.79 vs 1.88 est*	2.35 vs 2.29 est*	1.48 est*
Revenue Consensus Mean ($MM)	1,111.6 vs 946.4 est*	1,232.6 vs 1,073.6 est*	1,022.0 est*
EBITDA Consensus Mean ($MM)	587.9 vs 531.3 est*	569.7 vs 579.8 est*	516.1 est*

Notes: EPS and EBITDA “actual” reflect S&P Global’s normalization; company-reported Adjusted EBITDA in Q3 was $577.8MM . Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Operational execution remains strong: oil volumes at 155.7 MBopd and CapEx below plan drove solid Adj. FCF ($218.6MM) and high capital returns (69%) .
Four-mile lateral de-risking is a differentiator; early data points (full-lateral contribution and analog matching) support a larger program in 2026 with potential capital efficiency and decline benefits .
Cost tailwinds from marketing optimization ($30–$50MM annualized) and AI-enabled uptime improvements should support margins and FCF into 2026 .
FY25 guidance tweaks reflect Marcellus curtailments and XTO integration; net effect is higher oil volumes, lower G&A, higher interest, and slightly higher LOE midpoint .
Near-term setup: Q4 production benefits from XTO (~4 MBopd oil) and the return of a second frac crew; expect cyclicality with stronger contributions mid-2026 .
Watch estimate revisions: Revenue/EPS beats in Q3 vs S&P* may prompt upward adjustments; EBITDA definitional nuances matter when benchmarking vs company “Adjusted EBITDA”*.
Portfolio optionality intact: largest Williston operator with bolt-on XTO assets, long-lateral inventory depth, and non-core Marcellus monetization optionality .